Day by day, the NBA season just keeps getting closer and I
couldn’t be more excited. I’m offering
up some previews and predictions today, and I really don’t want to spend much
more time on introductions so I’ll just dive right in. I’ll kick off my predictions with some season
awards, some of them real and some just for the fun of it.
X-Factor of the Year
This first award goes to the person whose performance has
the potential to change the shape of the Eastern conference, and possibly the
whole league. With Derrick Rose, the
Bulls finished in a tie for the league’s best regular season record. After tearing his ACL at the very opening of
the playoffs the rest of the team went 1-4 against a barely-.500 76ers team, effectively losing the first round. If Rose ends up sitting for too much of the
season, the team will finish somewhere between a 6-8 seed and fail to reach the
second round of the playoffs again.
On the other hand, if Rose can make an early return, the
team can finish among the top 3 in their conference and serve as the only real problem for Miami in the playoffs. With Ray
Allen jumping ship from Boston and New York still having some difficulty
getting Carmelo and Amar'e on the same page, nobody else really has a shot at stopping the Heat this
season.
His return may also decide if other teams from the Central Division
can get into the playoffs. The Pacers are
a shoe-in for the postseason, but I think the Pistons success also relies a bit
on Rose’s return. A schedule that sees
a lot of games against a Rose-less Bulls team, as well as the Bucks and Cavs, could
give Detroit the extra couple wins they need to sneak into a playoff spot. I just hope D-Rose doesn’t try to rush
himself back too soon and cause any further damage; he’s got quite the career
ahead of him.
Comeback of the Year
The Mavericks had a lot to prove last year, as some team
members felt that they weren’t getting proper respect for their championship in 2011. They didn’t do much to
help their case. Dirk Nowitzki wasn’t
playing like himself after the lockout ended; his game was just off. The team finished with a mediocre record and
a first round playoff exit. Don’t expect
the same from Dirk this year.
Chris Kaman came to Dallas this offseason, which means that
Dirk will get back the down-low help he lost when Tyson Chandler left for New
York a year ago. It also doesn’t hurt
that Kaman and Nowitzki have teamed up together before, both being former
members of the German national basketball team.
The West is a tough conference, and the Mavs will be lucky to reach the
conference finals, but Dirk will help the team get back the respect that they
deserve.
Rookie of the Year
Last year’s rookie class had some pretty low expectations
with some critics even going as far as to call them the worst in NBA history. They proved us all wrong as guys like Kyrie
Irving, Ricky Rubio, Kenneth Faried and Iman Shumpert, just to name a few,
showed just how much impact they could have on a team. Of course, Kyrie came out on top
of that class. This year, the popular
opinion seems to be that Anthony Davis already has this award in the bag. I never follow college basketball much, aside
from March Madness, but from what I have seen of Davis I’m not quite sure I can
agree with everyone else.
It’s not that I don’t think Davis will be good, I’m just not
sure he will see the immediate stardom that everybody else seems to be
expecting. I expect a Kevin Love-esque
start for Davis. He’ll be good, just not
in the phenomenal way everyone expects him too.
I might be a little out there with this pick for the top newcomer, but
I’m going with the Portland Trail Blazer’s Damian Lillard.
I followed Lillard’s college career at Weber State a bit, mostly because he
was the nation’s number 2 scorer behind Reggie Hamilton of Oakland University,
where I’ve been going to school for the past couple years. I’m not sure how the rest of his game is yet,
but this guy can score. He also gets the
chance to play with LaMarcus Aldridge, coming off of his first all-star
season. They have the potential to be
one of the NBA’s best duos 3-4 years down the road, and the Blazers need it after
losing great draft picks like Brandon Roy and Greg Oden to injury in years past.
6th Man of the Year
What I like so much about this award is that I can’t
remember the last time I disagreed with the winner. James Harden did great coming off the bench
for the Thunder last year and played a key part in their championship run; there was no doubt that the award belonged to him.
With that being said, this is an award that players don’t
typically end up winning more than once.
Some players are stars that just feel more comfortable coming off the
bench. Once a player wins this award,
it’s as if they’ve reached a certain player status that makes them too good to
really be thought of as a sixth man. Let’s
be honest, Harden is the third best player on his team, same with 2008 recipient
Manu Ginobili. Taking that into
consideration, I don’t think we’ll see Harden repeating as the winner in this
category.
A clear winner can’t really be determined until about a
month or so into the season when we actually know what a team’s regular
starting five looks like. Jeff Teague
was pretty solid at running the point last year for the Atlanta Hawks. After the team picked up Lou Williams and
Devin Harris this offseason, they’ve gained quite a bit of depth at that
position. Harris’ game has taken quite
the drop since he got an all-star selection in ’09. He could still be solid for some teams, but I
expect Teague to keep his starting spot in Atlanta. Lou Williams seemed to have gotten
comfortable playing backup to Jrue Holiday over the past couple years. If he can keep up, or improve upon, his
nearly 15 points per game with his new team, expect him to add this one to his
trophy case.
Defensive Player of the Year
Tyson Chandler took this one home last year. He played not only tough, but also smart
defense and did a great job of making up for the lazy and seemingly uncaring defense that
Amar’e Stoudemire has been playing for a decade. I’m still amazed at how he only made the 2nd
all-defensive team last season, despite winning Defensive Player of the Year. That’s part of the reason why I don’t think
we’ll see him get recognized as the top defender this year.
Tony Allen really stepped his game up and showed what a
strong on-ball defender he could be last year.
I’m sure he’ll be considered the top backcourt defender this year, but
it won’t be enough for him to take home the hardware.
We all watched as Serge Ibaka swatted away nearly 4 shots
per game last year. He’s not great at
playing straight-up defense like Chandler is, but not since Ben Wallace was in
his prime have I seen somebody be able to time somebody’s shot or rush to help
defense well as Ibaka did last year (as seen here http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u-PwEFnPLNQ). This award won’t be an obvious choice, but I
think being on title-contender will give Ibaka that little advantage to sway some
votes in his favor.
Most Improved Player
This award is definitely the toughest to predict, as it
usually goes to somebody who comes out of nowhere for a breakout season. I think Jeremy Lin kind of missed out on this,
as he really didn’t play long enough to be considered for it last year and he’s
already expected to perform at a higher level of play this season. If his expectations aren’t as high as I
think, he may still be able to take this award.
Otherwise, I really just have to take a shot in the dark on this one.
In spite of a serious back injury, Evan Turner was still the
most athletic player in college basketball 2 years ago. After being picked 2nd by the
76ers, he came out with a pretty disappointing rookie year. His second year was better, but this guy
still hasn’t reached his full potential.
Andrew Bynum will be taking on the star role in Philly, and I think Jrue
Holiday and Turner will be able to play pretty well off of him. Don’t be surprised if this team sees a
struggle in trying to work cooperatively (think of a less-talented Knicks), but
don’t be surprised if ET’s numbers take a jump this year either. Lucky for him, this is one award where team
success is often overlooked.
Most Valuable Player
Grabbing his 3rd straight scoring title, Kevin
Durant was just outstanding last season.
In the playoffs, he managed to strip ‘Melo of his “best clutch shooter,”
title (sorry Kobe fans, he’s good but was never the best), on his way to a
conference championship.
The league’s other Kevin, Love that is, also managed to
amaze us all last year. Although not the
strongest defender, he can score from anywhere on the court and cleans the
glass like Windex. There’s no doubt that
he’s the best power forward in the league, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he
gets even better this season. With all
that said, I have to give my apologies to the two Kevin’s, LeBron James is just
the best basketball player around.
There’s no doubt that he’s been the best basketball player
in the league for a few years now. He
only missed out on getting 4 straight MVP awards because of the huge backlash
that resulted from teaming up with Bosh and Wade in 2011. Much of the negativity has gone away since he
finally put a championship title under his belt. Another MVP award is almost certain this
season. The only real question of his skill
is: how long will he be able to keep this up for? At only 27, he has at least another decades
worth of play ahead of him. I know this
is a bit of a taboo to say or think in the basketball world, but if he can
continue at this level of play for years to come, he has a shot at surpassing
Michael Jordan.
I’ve still got power rankings for 2013 to come, so
stayed tuned for some more predictions on the upcoming season of basketball.
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